PFL heads to Tampa, Florida, on August 22, 2026, for one of the promotion’s most significant events of the year. At the top of the card, Cris Cyborg puts the PFL Women’s Featherweight World Championship on the line against former UFC contender Ketlen Vieira at Benchmark International Arena.
There is an additional storyline that makes the main event particularly interesting: PFL has promoted this as the final MMA fight of Cyborg’s legendary career, although Cyborg herself has recently left the door slightly open regarding her future.
The card also features Gadzhi Rabadanov, Marcirley Alves, Taila Santos, Javid Basharat and several other interesting names.
Here are the mma.bz predictions for PFL Tampa, with our estimated win probability for every matchup.
Cris Cyborg vs. Ketlen Vieira
Prediction: Cris Cyborg — 74%
Ketlen Vieira — 26%
Even at this stage of her career, it is difficult to pick against Cris Cyborg.
The Brazilian enters the fight with a professional MMA record of 29-2 and one of the most impressive résumés in the history of women’s mixed martial arts. Over the course of two decades, Cyborg has captured championships in the UFC, Bellator, Strikeforce, Invicta FC and PFL.
Vieira, however, is not being brought in simply to provide Cyborg with a comfortable farewell.
The former UFC contender arrives with a 16-5 record and victories over established names including Holly Holm and Miesha Tate. She finished her UFC run with a 10-5 promotional record before moving to PFL.
Stylistically, Vieira’s best route to an upset may involve slowing the pace, forcing prolonged grappling exchanges and preventing Cyborg from establishing the kind of aggressive striking rhythm that has overwhelmed opponents throughout her career.
The problem is that beating Cyborg has historically required surviving an enormous amount of pressure.
Cyborg remains physically powerful, experienced and extremely difficult to discourage. Vieira should be competitive enough to prevent this from becoming a formality, but we still believe Cyborg has more ways to dictate the fight.
There is also the five-round championship format to consider. Experience in major title fights heavily favors Cyborg.
Our model therefore gives the champion roughly a three-in-four chance of winning.
mma.bz pick: Cris Cyborg (74%)
Gadzhi Rabadanov – 83%
Prediction: Gadzhi Rabadanov — 83%
Rabadanov is our strongest pick of the entire event.
The former PFL lightweight tournament champion brings an excellent combination of wrestling, physical strength and increasingly effective striking. PFL specifically positioned his return as one of the major attractions underneath Cyborg vs. Vieira.
His ability to determine where fights take place is the biggest reason for the high probability.
Rabadanov does not need to chase finishes to dominate. He can pressure opponents toward the cage, change levels and control long portions of rounds from advantageous positions.
That makes him particularly difficult to beat over three rounds.
There is always upset potential at lightweight, but this is the matchup where we see the clearest favorite on the Tampa card.
mma.bz pick: Gadzhi Rabadanov (83%)
Gustavo Oliveira vs. Marcirley Alves
Prediction: Marcirley Alves — 58%
Gustavo Oliveira — 42%
This is where the card becomes considerably harder to predict.
Alves has already established himself within PFL competition and was the promotion’s 2025 bantamweight world champion.
Oliveira, meanwhile, brings enough offensive danger to make this far from a comfortable prediction.
The matchup could ultimately be decided by who controls the pace. Alves tends to be at his best when he can create consistent pressure rather than allowing opponents to operate comfortably at distance.
We see Alves as the slightly more reliable fighter across three rounds, but 58% reflects the fact that this is nowhere near a lock.
mma.bz pick: Marcirley Alves (58%)
Luke Trainer vs. Roland Dunlap
Prediction: Luke Trainer — 62%
Roland Dunlap — 38%
Luke Trainer gets a moderate edge in our prediction.
Trainer’s size and physicality can make him an awkward opponent, particularly when he can combine his striking with clinch pressure.
The key will be avoiding unnecessary exchanges and using his physical advantages intelligently rather than turning the fight into a chaotic striking battle.
We do not see enough separation to make Trainer one of the strongest selections of the night, but over three rounds we believe he wins this matchup more often than not.
mma.bz pick: Luke Trainer (62%)
Magomed Magomedov vs. Daniel Marcos
Prediction: Magomed Magomedov — 64%
Daniel Marcos — 36%
This is one of the more interesting stylistic fights on the card.
Magomedov’s grappling and control are the biggest factors behind our prediction.
When he establishes his wrestling game, he can force opponents to spend significant amounts of energy defending takedowns and trying to regain position. That can dramatically change the rhythm of a fight.
Marcos is dangerous enough on the feet that Magomedov cannot afford to become predictable with his entries.
But if the fight repeatedly reaches the cage and turns into extended grappling sequences, we expect Magomedov to have the advantage.
mma.bz pick: Magomed Magomedov (64%)
Taila Santos vs. Sabrinna de Sousa
Prediction: Taila Santos — 79%
Sabrinna de Sousa — 21%
Taila Santos is our second-strongest selection on the card.
Santos has competed against elite-level opposition and brings significantly more high-level experience into this matchup.
She is also a difficult fighter to prepare for because she is comfortable operating in multiple phases. Santos can strike effectively at range, initiate clinch exchanges and use her physical strength to control opponents.
That versatility is important.
De Sousa certainly has upset potential, but we see a meaningful gap in proven competition and overall experience.
Unless Santos gets caught early or allows the fight to become unnecessarily chaotic, she should have several different paths to victory.
mma.bz pick: Taila Santos (79%)
Movsar Ibragimov vs. Javid Basharat
Prediction: Javid Basharat — 57%
Movsar Ibragimov — 43%
This is one of the fights we would be most cautious about predicting.
Ibragimov enters with an 8-1 professional record and has finished all eight of his victories — four by knockout and four by submission. In May, he submitted Shane Campbell via rear-naked choke.
That finishing ability makes him a serious threat.
Basharat, however, enters with substantially more professional experience at 15-2.
Our slight preference for Basharat comes from that experience and his ability to navigate competitive fights without necessarily needing a finish.
But 57-43 is intentionally close.
Ibragimov may be one of the most dangerous underdogs on the entire card.
mma.bz pick: Javid Basharat (57%)
Dakota Bush vs. Morques Forest
Prediction: Dakota Bush — 61%
Morques Forest — 39%
Bush gets the edge here, but not by enough to classify him among our safest predictions.
His experience and ability to compete in different phases should give him more options if his initial game plan does not work.
That versatility matters in fights where neither athlete appears to have an overwhelming advantage.
We expect a competitive matchup, with Bush doing enough over three rounds to come out ahead more frequently.
mma.bz pick: Dakota Bush (61%)
Natan Schulte vs. Artur Zaynukov
Prediction: Natan Schulte — 66%
Artur Zaynukov — 34%
Natan Schulte is another fighter whose experience weighs heavily in our prediction.
Schulte has spent years competing against strong opposition and understands how to win physically demanding fights.
His pressure can make opponents uncomfortable because there are relatively few opportunities to reset. If Schulte establishes his preferred pace early, Zaynukov could find himself spending much of the fight reacting rather than initiating.
Zaynukov remains dangerous enough to keep the percentage below 70%, but we favor Schulte’s proven durability and ability to maintain pressure.
mma.bz pick: Natan Schulte (66%)
Gino Van Steenis vs. Robert Watley
Prediction: Gino Van Steenis — 60%
Robert Watley — 40%
Van Steenis gets a relatively narrow advantage.
We expect his overall skill set and ability to mix his offense to make the difference, but this is another fight where the percentages should not be interpreted as overwhelming confidence.
Watley has enough experience to capitalize if Van Steenis makes mistakes.
Over the full fight, however, we slightly prefer Van Steenis.
mma.bz pick: Gino Van Steenis (60%)
Florim Zendeli vs. Omran Chaaban
Prediction: Florim Zendeli — 55%
Omran Chaaban — 45%
This is essentially one step removed from a coin flip.
Zendeli gets the smallest edge of any fighter on our card.
At 55%, we are effectively saying that if these two fought repeatedly under identical circumstances, we would expect Zendeli to win only slightly more often.
For prediction purposes, this is exactly the type of matchup where confidence should remain low.
mma.bz pick: Florim Zendeli (55%)
Eoin Sheridan vs. James Vake
Prediction: Eoin Sheridan — 72%
James Vake — 28%
Sheridan rounds out our strongest selections.
His upside and overall ability make him an interesting prospect to follow, and PFL Tampa provides another opportunity to demonstrate that he can translate his potential onto a larger stage.
The event is particularly significant for Sheridan because it marks his U.S. debut.
Vake should provide resistance, but we see Sheridan as the more likely fighter to dictate the exchanges and eventually take control.
At 72%, he joins Cyborg, Santos and Rabadanov among our most confident predictions.
mma.bz pick: Eoin Sheridan (72%)
PFL Tampa: Cyborg vs. Vieira – mma.bz Predictions
| Fight | Prediction | Win Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Cris Cyborg vs. Ketlen Vieira | Cris Cyborg | 74% |
| Gadzhi Rabadanov | Gadzhi Rabadanov | 83% |
| Gustavo Oliveira vs. Marcirley Alves | Marcirley Alves | 58% |
| Luke Trainer vs. Roland Dunlap | Luke Trainer | 62% |
| Magomed Magomedov vs. Daniel Marcos | Magomed Magomedov | 64% |
| Taila Santos vs. Sabrinna de Sousa | Taila Santos | 79% |
| Movsar Ibragimov vs. Javid Basharat | Javid Basharat | 57% |
| Dakota Bush vs. Morques Forest | Dakota Bush | 61% |
| Natan Schulte vs. Artur Zaynukov | Natan Schulte | 66% |
| Gino Van Steenis vs. Robert Watley | Gino Van Steenis | 60% |
| Florim Zendeli vs. Omran Chaaban | Florim Zendeli | 55% |
| Eoin Sheridan vs. James Vake | Eoin Sheridan | 72% |
The story of PFL Tampa will inevitably revolve around Cris Cyborg.
Whether August 22 truly becomes the final MMA appearance of her career or not, Cyborg enters the cage with an opportunity to add one more victory to a résumé that already places her among the most accomplished fighters in women’s MMA history.
Ketlen Vieira is a legitimate opponent, and her experience against high-level UFC competition means Cyborg cannot simply expect a ceremonial farewell. Still, we believe the champion’s physicality, striking and championship experience give her a significant advantage.
Our strongest picks for PFL Tampa are Gadzhi Rabadanov at 83%, Taila Santos at 79%, Cris Cyborg at 74% and Eoin Sheridan at 72%.
At the other end of the spectrum, Florim Zendeli at 55%, Javid Basharat at 57% and Marcirley Alves at 58% are considerably less certain selections.
PFL Tampa therefore offers an interesting mix: several clear favorites at the top of our predictions, but plenty of fights further down the card where an upset would hardly be surprising.
Predictions by mma.bz. Probabilities represent our assessment of each matchup and are not betting advice.
