The UFC returns to Sacramento, California, on August 22, 2026, with a middleweight showdown between Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez and Gregory “Robocop” Rodrigues at the top of the bill. The event takes place at Golden 1 Center and marks the promotion’s first trip back to Sacramento since 2019.
For Hernandez, this is an opportunity to immediately re-establish himself as one of the most dangerous contenders at 185 pounds. For Rodrigues, a victory over Hernandez would be one of the biggest wins of his UFC career.
Below are the mma.bz predictions for the card, including our estimated probability of each fighter winning.
Anthony Hernandez vs. Gregory Rodrigues
Prediction: Anthony Hernandez — 64%
Gregory Rodrigues — 36%
The main event is an excellent clash of styles and arguably a more dangerous fight for Hernandez than the percentages initially suggest.
Rodrigues is one of the division’s most dangerous offensive fighters. “Robocop” enters the contest with a 19-6 professional record, including 12 knockout victories and three submissions. His recent form has also been impressive. Rodrigues has won three consecutive fights, including first-round knockouts against Jack Hermansson and Brunno Ferreira.
His power is the biggest reason to be cautious about backing Hernandez too heavily. Rodrigues lands 5.53 significant strikes per minute and has recorded nine first-round finishes during his professional career. If Hernandez spends extended periods exchanging in the pocket, Rodrigues absolutely has the ability to change the fight with one combination.
But Hernandez’s best attributes attack areas that can make life extremely uncomfortable for Rodrigues.
Rather than giving opponents clean striking exchanges, Hernandez is excellent at turning fights into exhausting physical battles. His pressure, wrestling, clinch work and ability to maintain a relentless pace can gradually remove the space powerful strikers need to operate.
Over five rounds, that becomes particularly important.
Rodrigues’ 75% takedown defense is respectable, but Hernandez does not necessarily need every takedown attempt to succeed. Forcing Rodrigues to repeatedly defend wrestling exchanges, fight from the clinch and carry weight against the cage can itself become part of the strategy.
Rodrigues is dangerous enough that a knockout upset would not be surprising, especially early. But if Hernandez survives those dangerous opening exchanges and establishes his pressure, the matchup should increasingly move in his direction.
mma.bz pick: Anthony Hernandez (64%)
Reinier de Ridder vs. Roman Dolidze
Prediction: Reinier de Ridder — 72%
Roman Dolidze — 28%
This is one of our strongest predictions on the card.
Reinier de Ridder brings an unusual grappling game into almost every matchup. At 6-foot-4 with a 78-inch reach, he also possesses the frame to make clinch and ground exchanges extremely awkward for opponents. UFC statistics currently credit him with 2.56 takedowns per 15 minutes.
Dolidze is certainly not helpless on the ground. He has eight knockout victories and three submissions on his professional record and has shown throughout his UFC career that he is dangerous in unconventional grappling exchanges.
The problem is consistency.
Dolidze has gone 6-5 across his 11 UFC middleweight appearances, and the move to light heavyweight introduces another variable. De Ridder’s ability to create prolonged grappling sequences should give him more routes to winning rounds.
Dolidze’s power prevents this from being a completely comfortable prediction, but stylistically we favor de Ridder.
mma.bz pick: Reinier de Ridder (72%)
Serghei Spivac vs. Vitor Petrino
Prediction: Vitor Petrino — 57%
Serghei Spivac — 43%
This is where confidence drops considerably.
Spivac’s heavyweight grappling can completely change a fight once he gets an opponent to the floor. Petrino, however, brings athleticism and physical power that make this an intriguing stylistic matchup.
Our prediction essentially comes down to whether Petrino can keep enough of the contest standing.
If he can consistently separate and force Spivac to restart his takedown attempts, Petrino should have the advantage in the striking exchanges. If Spivac establishes top position early, however, that 57% prediction could look very fragile.
This is much closer to a coin flip than the first two fights.
mma.bz pick: Vitor Petrino (57%)
MarQuel Mederos vs. Mason Jones
Prediction: Mason Jones — 67%
MarQuel Mederos — 33%
Mederos is a talented fighter and has already demonstrated impressive striking efficiency. UFC statistics list him at 4.84 significant strikes landed per minute, with 56% accuracy and 58% significant-strike defense. He also has an 83% takedown-defense rate.
Those numbers make him a dangerous opponent.
Still, we favor Mason Jones because of his ability to turn fights into high-tempo, physically demanding contests. Jones can mix striking and grappling rather than allowing Mederos to settle into a comfortable kickboxing match.
Mederos’ takedown defense makes this interesting, but Jones’ overall pressure and experience give him the edge in our model.
mma.bz pick: Mason Jones (67%)
Carli Judice vs. Jeisla Chaves
Prediction: Carli Judice — 55%
Jeisla Chaves — 45%
One of the hardest fights on the card to predict.
Chaves enters undefeated at 8-0 and already has four knockout victories, with three of those wins coming in the first round.
That undefeated record is impossible to ignore, and a 55-45 prediction reflects how little separates these two in our assessment.
Judice gets the narrow edge, but this isn’t a fight where we would be surprised to see the prediction go the other way. Chaves’ power and unbeaten record make her a very legitimate threat.
mma.bz pick: Carli Judice (55%)
Terrance Chatman vs. Anthony Wint
Prediction: Anthony Wint — 76%
Terrance Chatman — 24%
Anthony Wint is one of the most interesting names on the card.
Wint earned his UFC opportunity on Dana White’s Contender Series only days before being booked for Sacramento. He stopped Matt Adams in just 34 seconds, improving his professional record to 7-0. Five of those victories have come by knockout, with another by submission.
His athletic background is also noteworthy. Before transitioning into MMA, Wint played linebacker and spent time with the New York Jets.
Chatman should not be dismissed, particularly in a heavyweight fight where a single clean connection can end everything. He enters at 5-1 with four knockout victories. Both men are making their UFC debuts on extremely short notice.
Nevertheless, Wint’s combination of explosiveness, finishing ability and athleticism makes him our most confident prediction of the event.
mma.bz pick: Anthony Wint (76%)
Jamall Emmers vs. Lerryan Douglas
Prediction: Lerryan Douglas — 58%
Jamall Emmers — 42%
Our final prediction is another relatively close one.
Emmers is considerably more experienced and remains a difficult opponent because he can contribute in several phases of a fight. His UFC career statistics show 5.10 significant strikes landed per minute alongside 2.59 takedowns per 15 minutes and an impressive 81% takedown-defense rate.
That experience is precisely why we are keeping the prediction relatively close.
Douglas gets the slight edge based on his upside and offensive threat, but Emmers has the skill set to make this a much more complicated fight than a typical prospect matchup.
mma.bz pick: Lerryan Douglas (58%)
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues – mma.bz Picks
| Fight | Prediction | Win Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Hernandez vs. Gregory Rodrigues | Anthony Hernandez | 64% |
| Reinier de Ridder vs. Roman Dolidze | Reinier de Ridder | 72% |
| Serghei Spivac vs. Vitor Petrino | Vitor Petrino | 57% |
| MarQuel Mederos vs. Mason Jones | Mason Jones | 67% |
| Carli Judice vs. Jeisla Chaves | Carli Judice | 55% |
| Terrance Chatman vs. Anthony Wint | Anthony Wint | 76% |
| Jamall Emmers vs. Lerryan Douglas | Lerryan Douglas | 58% |
The main event is competitive, but Anthony Hernandez is our pick to leave Sacramento with the victory. Rodrigues’ knockout power makes him dangerous for every second the fight remains standing, yet Hernandez’s pressure-heavy approach should become increasingly difficult to deal with as the fight progresses.
Our strongest picks are Anthony Wint at 76%, Reinier de Ridder at 72% and Mason Jones at 67%.
At the opposite end, Carli Judice at 55% and Vitor Petrino at 57% are fights where we see a considerably higher chance of an upset.
As always, percentages represent estimated win probabilities rather than guarantees. MMA remains an inherently unpredictable sport — and that is exactly what makes UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues such an interesting card to analyze.
Predictions by mma.bz. Probabilities represent our assessment of each matchup and are not betting advice.
